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18/6/2026

Is the AI CapEx Boom Sustainable?

Tykocinski compares today’s largely self-funded AI buildout with the dotcom era, while noting that long-term sustainability will depend on returns.

DAVID TYKOCINSKI: "I think the question people have is: How sustainable are these current levels of CapEx that seem really high? And I think the cop-out answer is we see clear areas of difference versus prior build outs and periods of excess if people think about the dotcom bubble. But it's also evolving, and some of those things that look very different are having more similarities by the day. So the thing that would be most often thought about is just the source of funding. So at this point, in dotcom bubble, your cumulative CapEx was essentially running 200% of your operating cash flow, and so it was almost definitionally externally funded. Now, that number for the last couple years was well under 100%. So there's clearly a difference when the build out is being funded by the largest, most well-capitalized companies in the world. The offset of that is we've just recently seen a multi-trillion-dollar market cap company suddenly tapping equity markets for that next tranche of the build out. So it's the kind of thing where a difference can exist, but it might be a little bit tighter than it was before. And I think the heart of the question is ultimately going to be the ROI on that spend and how it translates." Goldman Sachs - June 18, 2026

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